Reply To: Ran a little experiment

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The kids are the ones that did that. They know that pace time comprises average plus standard deviation, so the “fudge” factor or “failure margin” (Stdev) is already in the time and so going even slower doesn’t help matters much especially if you allow say another .4 or maybe it’s .5 etc. and you could end up being a full second or more off race pace. We call that a “feel good time” because you make a lot but doesn’t really relate or correlate to race performances. But you feel good. How far off actual race times are you going to allow?

Example: 20 x 50 on :50 free SCY, average is 28.29 (using 50s 2, 3 & 4 of 200) plus Stdev of .44 (n is over 2000+ splits to determine Stdev avg.) added together swimmer would hold “no slower than” 28.73. This swimmer since September has been offered 551 x 50s on :50, made 343 (at pace) for a 62.25 make percentage.

All the things you discuss are factored in by the Stdev. It shows technical reliability in all aspects of the swim and the lower the Stdev the higher reliability to performance.


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