Predicting Race Results based on a set
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I have two girls who can do 30×50 on a 50 second interval holding 33.5s. They haven’t done their 500 since completing that set but two weeks ago they were 5:48 and 5:45. Should I expect them to be under 5:40 at our next meet? If they aren’t able to do it, what might be the problem? Maybe I’m trying to read too much into one good set. They usually hold at least 33.5 on their 50s though.
"Most people have the will to win. Few have the will to prepare to win."
Question: Are they circle swimming because there is more than one swimmer in the lane? If they are, then that will help in offsetting the added time for a turn instead of a finish after each 50. If they aren’t circle swimming, then you need to factor that into your projection.
When we train 25’s for the 100 events, the start off the blocks tends to equal out the 3 turns they need to do. Not completely, but to some extent.
We are moving indoors next week, and my small group of swimmers will have to share a lane and circle swim. I will add a quarter second to each of their goal times in their 50’s to offset this. I will add half a second in the 75’s. It’s not perfect, but it seems to lead to about the same number of repeats.
By the way, does anybody have a good number on about how long each of the turns for each stroke takes? I would like to factor that into my projections and so would my swimmers.I haven’t been able to find this information
First of all, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if your girls go in the mid to upper 30’s next time.
However, considering you are focusing on the 500 with the set rather than the 200, I would either bump their interval down to 45 for the last 10 or 15 and see how they do or see if they can hold that pace doing 75’s.Thanks for the quick replies. They are usually circle swimming but once in a while I will break them off to swim in a lane by themselves so they both swim straight together in one lane for those sets. They are the only girls whose main focus is the 500.
It would be huge for their confidence if they could break 5:40 at the next meet. One of them is having a lot of doubts about training distance by swimming 50s and 75s.
How many yards do you think they need to be doing at 500 pace per week? I think I remember reading 3-6 times the distance they are training for each practice. So if they are hitting 2,000+ yards at race pace I should expect results? I’ve ready all the Rushall papers but that was back in March.
"Most people have the will to win. Few have the will to prepare to win."
Rick,
Data on turn times:This is from an article Bill Sweetenham wrote years ago. it’s about the easiest way to measure and you can do it at practice or meets and remain consistent. It’s really just “get your feet on the wall as fast as you can”
Freestyle & Backstroke. measured from last hand hit to foot touch (1 second)
Breaststroke & Butterfly measured from hand touch to foot touch (.77 seconds)We are in the 1.2 for fr & ba and .83 for br & fl
if it helps
"Only in America. Dream in red, white and blue"
I thought I’d update with their results. One of them went 5:40.2 which is her best in season time ever. For being only five weeks into the season I’m happy with it. The other one was legitimately sick all week and went 5:47.0. That was still almost 2 seconds faster than her best this season but considering she swims almost the exact same pace in practice I’m expecting 5:40 at the next meet when she is healthy.
So here is my question for oldschool based on those turn numbers. Does that mean if they are holding 33s in practice I should only expect 5:40 at a meet because the 1 second turns would make those 34s?
"Most people have the will to win. Few have the will to prepare to win."
billratio,
I have to bow out gracefully here. I have no data on 50s to 500 pace correlations. I think it’s just to short of a distance for any reliable correlations. I do have 100s to 500s, which is .987-.95673.If they are turning at 1.0, then yes. But my guess is they are’nt even close to that in practice. I have to hammer my guys about turn speeds just about every set. I probably time 20 to 30 turns during each set and try and relay that information to them during rest interval, espicially if they start to struggle with pace. We work on “controlling pace with turn speeds and underwater work”
My suggestion would be to track the race splits and correlate to training pace and see.
Sorry, not much help here.
"Only in America. Dream in red, white and blue"
How many 100s would they need to make for you to be confident in that correlation? I don’t think my girls will be making 15+ at race pace anytime soon. We haven’t really gone after 100s very hard though. I’ll start working them in more. The only 100s we’ve done recently are on set where we do something like 4×100 into 8×75 into 16×50. I know that isn’t exactly USRPT but they swim them race pace and sit out of they miss.
"Most people have the will to win. Few have the will to prepare to win."
billratio,
Probably 10-15. I wouldn’t etch that in stone but it’s pretty damn close. Rest interval of 10 to 15 seconds. Your set is fine. What you might want to do is start increasing the number of 100s and decrease the number of 75s and 50s. e.g. Maybe you go 6-8 x 100 @ 500 pace, then 6 x 75 @ 500 pace followed by 12 x 50 @ 500 pace with ever short rest (10 seconds) and see how they do. Don’t be afraid to experiment! If they can’t do it you do what you are already doing and that’s let them stop and shift to the next lower distance.Don’t worry about it being exactly USRPT. You have to remember that MA is really the only swimmer we know that is using USRPT and maybe a couple of season of SDSU college swimming. While Dr. Rushall’s ideas are based in well researched science the good Dr. has not shown any data that validates this. We in the field are the practioners and have to work with each other to figure out what works and what doesn’t.
Sorry for the soap box dialogue
Oldschoolc
"Only in America. Dream in red, white and blue"
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